Patrick Surtain II just did the unthinkable. Honestly, if you follow the NFL awards cycle, you know the Associated Press has a massive crush on pass rushers. For years, the Defensive Player of the Year trophy was basically reserved for whoever had the most sacks or the highest "pass rush win rate" according to a spreadsheet. But the 2024 defensive player of the year NFL race flipped the script.
Pat Surtain II, the lockdown corner for the Denver Broncos, didn't just win; he dominated a ballot filled with some of the scariest edge rushers we've seen in a decade.
It’s been a long time since a defensive back got this kind of love. Think back to Stephon Gilmore in 2019—that was the last time. Before that? You’re looking at Charles Woodson in 2009. The league is built for scoring now. Rules are slanted toward receivers. So, when a guy makes the league’s best wideouts literally disappear for sixty minutes at a time, people eventually have to stop and stare.
The Numbers Behind the Island
We’ve got to talk about "Surtain Island." It isn't just a catchy nickname. In 2024, it was a statistical black hole where passing games went to die. Surtain finished the season with 330 total points in the voting, including 26 first-place votes. He beat out Trey Hendrickson (205 points) and the previous year's winner, Myles Garrett (162 points).
How did a cornerback with "only" four interceptions beat guys with 15+ sacks?
Basically, it comes down to the "avoidance" factor. According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain was targeted on just 10.9% of his coverage snaps. That is the lowest rate for any cornerback with at least 300 snaps in the entire league. Think about that. Quarterbacks were so terrified of him that they looked the other way 90% of the time.
- Total Yards Allowed: 306 (First in NFL for high-volume corners)
- Yards Per Snap: 0.6
- Touchdowns Allowed: Zero. Zip. Nada.
- Passer Rating Allowed: 46.6 in zone coverage.
He wasn't just guarding "whoever." He was matched up against Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, and Garrett Wilson. He didn't allow more than 50 receiving yards in a single game all season. That kind of consistency is just absurd.
The Controversy: What Happened to T.J. Watt?
You can't talk about the 2024 defensive player of the year NFL results without mentioning the Pittsburgh-sized elephant in the room. T.J. Watt finished fourth in the voting with 114 points. For the second year in a row, the Steelers star and his fanbase felt absolutely robbed.
Watt’s case is always the same: he fills the box score like nobody else. Sacks, forced fumbles, tackles for loss—he leads in almost everything. But voters seem to be moving toward "impact beyond the box score."
Myles Garrett (who came in third) and Trey Hendrickson (second) both had higher pressure rates and win rates than Watt in several categories. The "analytics vs. traditional stats" war is real, and for now, the analytics crowd—and the "film grinders" who see Surtain erasing a #1 receiver—are winning the debate.
It's sorta wild when you think about it. Watt had 11.5 sacks through 14 games and then went quiet in the final stretch. That "disappearing act" late in the season probably killed his chances. In the NFL, it’s not just what you do; it’s when you do it.
Why a Cornerback Won Now
The Broncos' defense was a top-three unit in 2024 in terms of points allowed. You don't get there without a centerpiece. Surtain signed a massive $96 million extension in September and immediately went out and proved he was underpaid.
The 2024 defensive player of the year NFL award usually goes to a guy on a playoff team, and the Broncos finally checked that box. With Bo Nix steadying the offense, the world finally got to see Denver in primetime games and high-stakes January football.
Breaking the Pass Rusher Streak
Before 2024, the award was basically an exclusive club for guys like Aaron Donald, Nick Bosa, and Myles Garrett. There’s a bias. Sacks are loud. They involve a guy falling down and a celebration.
Incompletion? That’s quiet.
But when you watch the tape of Surtain against the Bengals or the Chiefs, you see the ripple effect. Because he takes away the first read, the quarterback has to hold the ball. That’s why the Broncos led the NFL with 63 sacks as a team. Surtain didn’t get those sacks, but he caused them.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re looking at the future of the Defensive Player of the Year award, the "blueprint" has changed. We aren't just looking at the sack leader anymore.
- Watch the "Target Rate": If you want to spot the next DPOY candidate in the secondary, look for the guy who isn't being thrown at. If a corner is targeted less than 12% of the time, voters are going to notice.
- The "Late-Season Fade" is Real: If a candidate like T.J. Watt or Myles Garrett doesn't produce in December, they lose the narrative.
- Team Success Matters Again: Being the best player on a 5-12 team won't get you the trophy. You need to be the anchor of a unit that carries a team into the postseason.
- Look for High-Value Extensions: Usually, when a team makes a guy the highest-paid at his position (like Denver did with Surtain), they’re going to highlight him in every defensive scheme.
Patrick Surtain II's win marks a shift in how we value defense in the modern era. It’s no longer just about the "havoc" plays at the line of scrimmage. It’s about total erasure. For the first time in five years, the best defender in football wasn't a pass rusher—he was the guy making pass rushing possible by locking down the entire field.
To keep up with next year's race, track the "yards allowed per coverage snap" metric on Next Gen Stats. It’s becoming the most influential stat for voters looking to move beyond the sack count.